Week 14 NCAAF best bets, odds & picks including Oklahoma St & Texas
Week 13 was another terrific week of college football, with compelling games and exciting finishes throughout. Unfortunately, we had a disappointing 1-3 showing in the column last week — bringing us to 22-19 (53.6%) since Week 2. I’ve said all season that regression was to be expected after we cashed at an unsustainable 63% rate a year ago, but we pulled off a clean sweep in this situation a year ago, so let’s replicate that effort this weekend!
Conference Championship Week is here and we have a compelling slate ahead of us, including massive games in the ACC, Pac-12, SEC, AAC and Big 12. With the weekend rapidly approaching, here is a look at my best bets for Week 14 of the college football season. And remember, you can check out all of our CFB predictions for the action.
Washington Huskies +10 vs Oregon Ducks (-115)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Washington +9.5 (-110).
We are getting a rematch of what was my Game of the Year back in October as the Washington Huskies and Oregon Ducks will clash in the final installment of the Pac-12 Championship. On one side, the Ducks have looked absolutely dominant in the weeks since, but the same can’t be said of a Washington team that has just gone through a brutal gauntlet of a November schedule, including close wins over USC, Oregon State, Utah and Washington State. This has prompted a pretty dramatic line move in the market, as Oregon is laying double digits (be sure to shop around) after being a 3-point road underdog in the first meeting. It’s easy to see why the market is in love with the Ducks, with Heisman favorite Bo Nix leading an efficient and explosive offense that is 1st in rush success rate and net points per drive, plus 3rd in passing success rate (CFB-Graphs). Nix has a plethora of weapons at his disposal and his offensive line should have no issues against a Washington front that has struggled mightily at defending the run this season.
There is one thing that Washington can hang its hat on in this game and that is an explosive passing attack that can generate big plays at any moment. Yes, Michael Penix Jr. hasn’t looked like himself of late, but it’s been revealed that he has been battling through injury and dealt with flu-like symptoms in a few recent contests, so that may have been something to do with it. As it stands, I expect Penix and this elite group of wide receivers to raise their level against a Ducks defense that is 121st in explosiveness allowed over the last month. Oregon absolutely has the better defense in this game — particularly against the pass — but the Huskies generated a number of explosive plays in the first meeting and I see no reason why that wouldn’t hold this time around. Therefore, while I get the love for the Ducks in this spot, I can’t quite get there with this number at 10 points.
Oregon should stay ahead of the chains throughout this contest, leading to an effort where I see the Ducks putting up at least 31-35 points. With that being said, I still feel like the coaching advantage lies with the underdog here, which wouldn’t make me feel comfortable about laying double digits with Dan Lanning, a coach I respect but have yet to see win a game of this magnitude. As an Oregon futures holder, I do think the Ducks win this game by around a touchdown, but that backdoor will be wide open for Penix and company. This should be a fun one in Las Vegas, so let’s back the underdog to keep things close for the second straight season in the Pac-12 title game.
Be sure to check out our full Oregon vs Washington predictions
Texas Longhorns team total over 34.5 (-115)
Odds available at BetRivers Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Texas team total over 36.5
We’ve got a clear mismatch on our hands at AT&T Stadium this weekend when the Texas Longhorns go up against an Oklahoma State team that has miraculously made it to the Big 12 title Game after picking up a couple of terrible nonconference losses. The Cowboys dropped just one Game in conference play, but they were certainly fortunate in wins over Oklahoma, Kansas State and BYU most recently, a trend that doesn’t bode well against a Texas team that is rounding into championship form since the return of quarterback Quinn Ewers 2 weeks ago. But instead of laying this big number with Texas at over 2 touchdowns, I’ll be targeting the Longhorns to clear their team total number instead.
Fist off, there’s the matter of the Longhorns defense, and how that could lead to success for their offense. Texas boasts what might be the best front seven in the nation and should be well-equipped to slow down Ollie Gordon, the terrific Oklahoma State running back who is the key to the Cowboys’ success this season. If Gordon is unable to get going, Bowman is going to be faced with extra pressure, which is not ideal for Oklahoma State considering that he leads the conference in turnover-worthy plays per PFF. Not only would limiting their rushing attack likely make the Cowboys less efficient in scoring situations, but it could produce turnovers that could put the Longhorns in advantageous situations offensively.
While Texas tends to leave points in the red zone every week, the Longhorns should have more than enough success against Oklahoma State’s defense that is 107th in EPA per pass and 106th in early downs EPA this season, so the Longhorns should be able to use their talent advantage to score when given the opportunity. There’s also the matter of the Longhorns having the clear talent edge and having the motivation factor in this one as well. With Texas playing early on Saturday, I expect Steve Sarkisian’s group to be motivated to win convincingly so they are not left out of the College Football Playoff if Florida State goes down later that night. While I don’t mind laying it with Texas, I’m more comfortable taking a team total over for a Longhorns side that should put up 37+ points in this one.
Be sure to check out all of our NCAAF Week 14 picks for the biggest Games this weekend
SMU Mustangs +4.5 vs Tulane Green Wave (-110)
Odds taken from game preview published on November 27. Playable to +3.
Last week I faded Tulane at home and was sadly unsuccessful. However, even after the Green Wave took care of business in that matchup, there were a lot of fortunate bounces that went their way in that game, including a whopping 5 turnovers from UTSA. For a team that finished +4 in turnover margin, Tulane still didn’t manage to outgain UTSA and allowed the Roadrunners to run for 200 yards, averaging over 5 yards per rush in the contest. The Green Wave clearly got away with playing a UTSA team that was off their game, but I don’t expect that to be the case in the conference title game.
There’s a reason why I touted SMU to win this conference at over 3/1 odds in the preseason, and the talent and depth the Mustangs have on both sides of the ball is impressive. This is a team that used the transfer portal to their advantage, snagging players from the likes of Alabama, Texas A&M and more en route to a team talent composite that ranks in the top 30 in the nation per 247Sports. Even on the road, they’d likely be favored in this Game if starting quarterback Preston Stone was playing, but he’ll miss the rest of the season with a broken fibula. However, backup QB Kevin Jennings has seen substantial playing time this season, and this is an offense that should work regardless of who is under center. Rhett Lashlee’s group is strong across the board, ranking inside the top 40 in rushing and passing success rate, 11th in early downs EPA and 11th in net points per drive (CFB-Graphs).
Even with the injury to Stone, I still love the value we’re getting with SMU in this game. This is a team that is extremely balanced on both sides of the ball and should be able to shut down the run game of Tulane and force Michael Pratt beat them consistently in the passing game. Pratt is easy to root for, but something has been off with him of late. He only completed 40% of his throws last week and UTSA doesn’t have the talent up front that this SMU defense has (21st in rushing success rate, 17th in net points per drive). Look for the Mustangs to even the score by forcing a turnover or two and I’d expect this one to come down to the wire. I’ve got the underdog winning outright here, so I’ll certainly take the extra points with SMU on Saturday.
Read our full SMU vs Tulane predictions
Comments
Post a Comment