Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets - Wednesday, December 20
The holiday season is all about giving and with a three-game NHL slate on Wednesday, I’m digging into every assist market to find the best value in an NHL player props market that doesn’t get a lot of attention — which usually means more value.
After finishing up with the NHL odds, I’m rolling with one of the best assist rearguards in the league, getting a piece of that dominating first line in Winnipeg, and taking a stab at big plus money in the nightcap.
Here are my free NHL picks for Wednesday, December 20.
NHL prop picks and best bets for December 20
- Noah Dobson Over 0.5 assists (-120 at Bet99)
- Nikolaj Ehlers Over 0.5 assists (+160 at Bet99)
- Phillip Danault Over 0.5 assists (+170 at Bet99)
Picks made on December 20 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1: Dabbing up Dobson
Let’s start with a high-probability assist play. Noah Dobson currently ranks third among defensemen in assists with 28 over his 31 Games. He has a helper in 18 of those 31 matches and is coming in hot with 17 assists over his last 11 Games. The New York Islanders are also scoring in bunches of late with the No. 3-scoring offense in hockey over the last 30 days.
The matchup is the only thing that isn’t a giant checkmark but that's priced into the -120 odds.
The Islanders are on the backend of a back-to-back tonight vs. Washington with a shrinking total, but Dobson is averaging nearly 27 minutes of ice time per game over the last 30 days — one of hockey's biggest TOIs. He doesn’t get off the ice and faces a mid-tier penalty kill and a team that ranks in the bottom half in expected goals against/60 since November 1.
It’s tough to pay juice on an assist prop but I don't mind that when betting on Noah Dobson's odds. He's 9-2 to the Over across his last 11 Games and is a giant part of an offense that has been rolling since the calendar hit November.
Noah Dobson prop: Over 0.5 assists (-120 at Bet99)
Prop bet #2: St. Nikolaj
Nikolaj Ehlers' odds surrounding his assist prop are my favorite of the night because he has everything going for him in this spot.
First is the price. He's paying a decent +160 to get an apple which is something he's done in seven of his last eight games. Even with Kyle Connor out, his line with Mark Scheifele and Gabe Vilardi has been on fire over the last three games, with the trio having combined for 19 total points.
Next is the matchup. The Red Wings have hit the rails hard after acquiring Patrick Kane. They're 1-6 over that stretch with losses to some of the worst teams in hockey including the Ducks, Sharks, and Sens. The Wings have a 3.60 GAA over their last 10 games which is the sixth-worst mark in hockey, and are down to their No. 3 goalie (James Reimer) as Ville Husso and Alex Lyon were injured in consecutive games.
The price, opportunity, form, and matchup make this my favorite assist prop of the night.
Nikolaj Ehlers: Over 0.5 assists (+160 at Bet99)
Prop bet #3: Plus-money Phillip
Although the top line for the Los Angeles Kings has been good to me this year, it’s Phillip Danault's odds that have my attention.
The Kraken have one of the better penalty kills in hockey and take penalties at a Bottom-5 rate, so power play time isn’t essential here. This game could see plenty of 5-on-5 ice time and more work for the second-line centerman who has helpers in back-to-back games.
He had one assist two games ago on the road vs. the Kraken where he played a full minute over his season-long average TOI. Danault is insulated with scoring wingers in Kevin Fiala and Trevor Moore, and gets the bump as a centerman as he touches the puck more and is winning 52.2% of his faceoffs.
Danault is also a player who will see a steady diet of 17+ minutes per game that won’t fluctuate due to the game script. He's one of the best defensive centers in hockey and will get his minutes even when the team is leading. Guys like Quinton Byfield can sometimes end up with 13 minutes of ice time when the Kings are playing with the lead, which is not what bettors want.
This is projected to be a lower-scoring game. making the +170 play for his assist more of a low-risk high-reward play in a game where L.A. will flirt with the four-goal mark. This Over has cashed in 50% of his games dating back to November 16, a stretch of 14 games.
Phillip Danault prop: Over 0.5 assists (+170 at Bet99)
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