Best NBA Player Props Today - January 23
We have five games on the NBA slate on Tuesday, and while I don't think we'll see anyone drop 70 points, that doesn't mean we shouldn't be on the hunt for some Over bets in the NBA odds.
Josh Giddey has become quite the helper for OKC this season, and his assists total has me intrigued. Let's take a closer look at the latest NBA player props and find out who else I'm betting on in my free NBA picks for January 23.
Best NBA player props today
- Murray Under 7.5 assists (+110 at bet365)
- Giddey Over 4.5 assists (+132 at BetRivers)
- Sexton Under 21.5 points (-103 at BetRivers)
Picks made on January 23 at 6:30 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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NBA player props for January 23
Prop bet #1: Total too high
When I started writing this article, eight sportsbooks were trading Jamal Murray's odds to go Under 7.5 assists at +110 — a suboptimal number that will likely be corrected by the market fairly quickly. If you're at work, you might have to sneak in a pretend bathroom break immediately to hit the button on this number because I doubt it will still be there at lunchtime.
Murray and the Denver Nuggets will take on the Indiana Pacers on Tuesday, and the Pacers will be without Tyrese Haliburton. Playing the Under on a point guard's assists total against Indiana has been a common theme for me this season.
There's a common perception that a game against the Pacers — known for their extremely high pace and scoring — is a great spot for an Over bet on a team's point guard. However, in reality, the number often gets too inflated because of this perception, and there's more value in the Under.
The Nuggets won't need Murray to break down the defense and run a ton of pick-and-roll with Nikola Jokic: Everyone will contribute to creating offense, and the assists should be more spread out. Additionally, when you get in the lane against Indiana, there isn't much reason to pass as you can easily finish at the rim against its defense.
Murray is projected to have 7.1 assists tonight, allowing us to price the Under 7.5 assists at -140, but it's trading at +110 at bet365. This number will be corrected by the market, so don't hesitate to hit the button.
Jamal Murray prop: Under 7.5 assists (+115 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: Giddy for Giddey
I feel like Josh Giddey is going to end up challenging Dejounte Murray at the end of the season for the most times I bet on an Over for a player's assists prop.
Josh Giddey odds show value more often than not with his assists prop, especially as they continue to trade with a total of 4.5, with heavy plus money on the Over. However, it's the matchup combined with the price that has me hitting the button on Tuesday.
Giddey can create offense for his teammates: he's been especially good at finding Jalen Williams on some cuts for easy baskets at the rim. That being said, Giddey is also low-key a stat padder against the weaker teams in the NBA, and on Tuesday, he's taking on the Portland Trail Blazers.
Giddey just played the Trail Blazers on January 11 and dropped a triple-double in 22 minutes with 12 dimes. On January 8, Giddey had nine dimes against the Washington Wizards. I think you can see where I'm going with this.
Against a bad defense, in a wide-open game, Giddey is going to find his teammates for some dimes, and he has the players around him who can convert potential assists into actual assists at the rim.
Giddey is projected to have exactly five assists tonight, allowing us to price the Over 4.5 assists at -114. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 24%.
Josh Giddey prop: Over 4.5 assists (+132 at BetRivers)
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Prop bet #3: Collin crumbles
Shoutout to the Utah Jazz and Collin Sexton, who have completely turned their season around. The Jazz's head coach, Will Hardy, said he decided to judge Sexton based on what he's seen from him on the basketball court and not what others have said, and you can see the synergy building in Utah.
That being said, his narrative is soaring. He's gone Over his points total in eight straight games, and I think it's time for an Under bet on Collin Sexton's odds. Before his Over streak began, Sexton was trading with a total of 15.5, and we've now seen it climb six points to 21.5 with increased juice on the Over.
On Tuesday, Sexton will be going head-to-head with Herb Jones of the New Orleans Pelicans. Jones is an excellent defender, and his size and length could also pose a problem for the smaller Sexton. Jones is 6-foot-7, and Sexton is 6-foot-3, but Jones also has a 7-foot wingspan.
With Herb initially starting on Sexton and the opportunity for the Pelicans to bring Dyson Daniels or Jose Alvarado off the bench, NOLA has multiple players it can use to disrupt Sexton's offensive game just enough to send him Under this total of 21.5 points.
Sexton is projected to score 20.1 points, so you can see how the move up to 21.5 on the total plays a big role in this wager. With this projection, we can price him at -154 to go Under the total of 21.5.
Collin Sexton prop: Under 21.5 points (-103 at BetRivers)
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